Lately, a lot of my clients here in La Mesa and around inland San Diego are telling me the same thing. "Brandon, this market feels a little too good to be true. My portfolio results don't match what I'm seeing in the news. When is the other shoe going to drop, and should we be getting more conservative now?"
That feeling is completely normal. And it deserves a real answer, not a platitude. As a CFP working with pre-retirees throughout San Diego County, from El Cajon to Santee to Spring Valley, here is how I think about it.
The honest answer is: it depends on why you want to make a change.
Should You Change Your Investment Strategy Right Now?
There are two very different reasons an investor might want to adjust their investment strategy during a period of market uncertainty. One is a good reason. One almost never is.
The Good Reason: Your Plan Has Changed
If something meaningful has shifted in your life, your timeline, your income needs, your health, your goals, then yes, your investment strategy should reflect that.
A good financial plan is a living document, and it should be updated when your life changes. This is why when we meet with clients, we always discuss what's new in your life, and significant upcoming changes to your spending. Market conditions may have simply created a moment to reassess something that needed reassessing anyway.
The Reason That Rarely Works Out: You're Scared
Reacting to market uncertainty by moving to cash or dramatically shifting your allocation can be one of the costliest mistakes an investor makes.
The reason is simple: to benefit from that move, you have to be right twice. You have to get out at the right time, and you have to get back in at the right time. Research suggests most investors, professional and individual alike, struggle to do this consistently.
What a Good Investment Plan Already Accounts For
If your investment strategy was built around your actual timeline, income needs, and risk tolerance, it was designed with the expectation that markets would be volatile along the way.
A well-constructed plan doesn't need to be abandoned when it encounters exactly the conditions it was built for.
Why the Decade Around Retirement Matters Most
For near-retirees in La Mesa, El Cajon, Santee, and throughout inland San Diego, the decade surrounding retirement, roughly five years before and five years after, is when investment decisions carry the most weight. A significant loss in this window, combined with withdrawals, may have a lasting impact on how long your money lasts. (Compliance flag: kept "may" here, which is good. Just confirming this softened language stays in the final version rather than reverting to "can have.") This is worth a real conversation with your advisor. Not a reaction. A conversation.
This is really the question underneath the question. When clients ask me whether they should get more conservative, what they're often really asking is, "Am I going to be okay?" That's the question a real financial plan is built to answer, not with guesses about where the market is headed next, but with a clear picture of your own numbers.
The clients who feel most confident during uncertain markets are not the ones who predicted them. They are the ones who made a plan that accounted for them, and who trust the process enough to stay the course.
Markets feeling too good to be true is not a financial plan problem. It is a reminder of why having a financial plan matters.
What to Do Next If You're Retiring Soon in San Diego County
Good financial planning is all about taking action. Here's what to do next.
Take stock of your current investment strategy, and your need for withdrawals from your investment accounts.
How much of your portfolio, in dollars, is in safer investments that don't fluctuate with the stock market?
With your current and future need to spend from this money, how long would these safer investments last before you were forced to sell stocks to fund your living expenses?
This calculation is a good starting point for understanding how long of a storm your investment strategy can weather.
If you're a client, know that we'll review this detail each time we discuss your investments. If you're not yet a client, and you live in La Mesa, El Cajon, Santee, or anywhere else in San Diego County and would like a second opinion on your investment strategy, CLICK HERE to schedule a 30-minute call to discuss.